South Ark Daily Picks / South Florida at UTSA

South Florida at UTSA

Model projection, matchup context, market snapshot and limitations.

WEEK 6 · 10/8/2026, 6:30:00 PM CT

South Florida at UTSA

Alamodome

SE v3.0 PROJECTION21.3 — 31.9

Separate CFBD line snapshot: UTSA spread -7 · total 50
Line snapshot 10/7/2026, 7:25:27 PM CT

Our prediction vs sportsbook odds

Our projected score: South Florida 21.3 · UTSA 31.9

DraftKingsCached sportsbook odds

Market	Our model	Sportsbook snapshot	Model / market difference
Moneyline	UTSA win 42.2%	UTSA (-270) South Florida (+220)	-30.7 percentage points vs UTSA break-even
Spread	UTSA -10.6	UTSA -7 (-102) South Florida +7 (-118)	+3.6 points home-side edge; favors UTSA
Total	53.1	Over 49.5 (-115) Under 49.5 (-105)	+3.6 points (model − market total)

South Florida at UTSA
Oldest displayed book update 10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT · retrieved 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT

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FanDuelCached sportsbook odds

Market	Our model	Sportsbook snapshot	Model / market difference
Moneyline	UTSA win 42.2%	UTSA (-260) South Florida (+210)	-30 percentage points vs UTSA break-even
Spread	UTSA -10.6	UTSA -6.5 (-118) South Florida +6.5 (-104)	+4.1 points home-side edge; favors UTSA
Total	53.1	Over 50.5 (-106) Under 50.5 (-114)	+2.6 points (model − market total)

South Florida at UTSA
Oldest displayed book update 10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT · retrieved 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT

BetMGMCached sportsbook odds

Market	Our model	Sportsbook snapshot	Model / market difference
Moneyline	UTSA win 42.2%	UTSA (-250) South Florida (+210)	-29.2 percentage points vs UTSA break-even
Spread	UTSA -10.6	UTSA -7 (-105) South Florida +7 (-115)	+3.6 points home-side edge; favors UTSA
Total	53.1	Over 49.5 (-120) Under 49.5 (-108)	+3.6 points (model − market total)

South Florida at UTSA
Oldest displayed book update 10/8/2026, 7:04:03 AM CDT · retrieved 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT

Differences are arithmetic comparisons, not validated betting edges or positive-EV recommendations. Bookmaker prices include margin and may have changed.

No new official selection: validation and threshold review pending.

2026-10-08 · CENTRAL TIME · validated-betting-2.0

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New selections require positive expected value at a verified recent price and historically validated market calibration. A projected winner or high probability alone does not qualify a bet.

1 games on today’s research board

COLLEGE-FOOTBALL · 10/8/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT

South Florida at UTSA

Model Prediction: South Florida 21.3 · UTSA 31.9

Projected Winner: UTSA

UTSA win 42.2% · projected UTSA spread -10.6 · total 53.1

Why the Model Projects This Outcome

The model projects UTSA ahead by 10.6 with a game total of 53.1. Injuries and lineup changes are unverified. This is a model lean, not a validated betting recommendation.

Research forecast · betting confidence unavailable

Full matchup →

Model / market research comparisons

Unvalidated residual estimates are descriptive research, not published bets. Expected value below is arithmetic per unit staked, not a validated profit forecast; pushes return the stake.

Game / selection	Sportsbook	Line / price	Research probability	Break-even	Raw EV	Publication status
South Florida at UTSA moneyline · South Florida	DraftKings	— / +220	57.8% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	31.3%	84.8%	Blocked: market_calibration_unavailable, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive 10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT
South Florida at UTSA moneyline · South Florida	FanDuel	— / +210	57.8% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	32.3%	79.1%	Blocked: market_calibration_unavailable, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive 10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT
South Florida at UTSA moneyline · South Florida	BetMGM	— / +210	57.8% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	32.3%	79.1%	Blocked: market_calibration_unavailable, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive 10/8/2026, 7:04:03 AM CDT
South Florida at UTSA spread · South Florida Selected edge -4.1 points	FanDuel	6.5 / -104	70.7% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	51.0%	38.7%	Blocked: nonpositive_selected_spread_edge, market_calibration_unavailable, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive 10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT
South Florida at UTSA spread · South Florida Selected edge -3.6 points	BetMGM	7 / -115	70.7% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	53.5%	32.2%	Blocked: nonpositive_selected_spread_edge, market_calibration_unavailable, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive 10/8/2026, 7:04:48 AM CDT
South Florida at UTSA spread · South Florida Selected edge -3.6 points	DraftKings	7 / -118	70.7% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	54.1%	30.6%	Blocked: nonpositive_selected_spread_edge, market_calibration_unavailable, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive 10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT
South Florida at UTSA total · under Selected edge -3.6 points	DraftKings	49.5 / -105	56.9% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	51.2%	11.1%	Blocked: nonpositive_total_edge, market_calibration_unavailable, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive 10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT
South Florida at UTSA total · under Selected edge -3.6 points	BetMGM	49.5 / -108	56.9% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	51.9%	9.6%	Blocked: nonpositive_total_edge, market_calibration_unavailable, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive 10/8/2026, 7:04:48 AM CDT
South Florida at UTSA total · under Selected edge -2.6 points	FanDuel	50.5 / -114	57.8% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	53.3%	8.4%	Blocked: nonpositive_total_edge, market_calibration_unavailable, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive 10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT
South Florida at UTSA total · over Selected edge 2.6 points	FanDuel	50.5 / -106	42.2% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	51.5%	-17.9%	Blocked: market_calibration_unavailable, nonpositive_expected_value, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive, probability_direction_mismatch 10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT
South Florida at UTSA total · over Selected edge 3.6 points	DraftKings	49.5 / -115	43.1% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	53.5%	-19.4%	Blocked: market_calibration_unavailable, nonpositive_expected_value, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive, probability_direction_mismatch 10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT
South Florida at UTSA total · over Selected edge 3.6 points	BetMGM	49.5 / -120	43.1% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	54.5%	-21.0%	Blocked: market_calibration_unavailable, nonpositive_expected_value, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive, probability_direction_mismatch 10/8/2026, 7:04:48 AM CDT
South Florida at UTSA moneyline · UTSA	BetMGM	— / -250	42.2% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	71.4%	-40.9%	Blocked: market_calibration_unavailable, nonpositive_expected_value, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive, probability_direction_mismatch 10/8/2026, 7:04:03 AM CDT
South Florida at UTSA moneyline · UTSA	FanDuel	— / -260	42.2% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	72.2%	-41.5%	Blocked: market_calibration_unavailable, nonpositive_expected_value, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive, probability_direction_mismatch 10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT
South Florida at UTSA spread · UTSA Selected edge 3.6 points	DraftKings	-7 / -102	29.3% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	50.5%	-42.0%	Blocked: market_calibration_unavailable, nonpositive_expected_value, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive, probability_direction_mismatch 10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT
South Florida at UTSA moneyline · UTSA	DraftKings	— / -270	42.2% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	73.0%	-42.1%	Blocked: market_calibration_unavailable, nonpositive_expected_value, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive, probability_direction_mismatch 10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT
South Florida at UTSA spread · UTSA Selected edge 3.6 points	BetMGM	-7 / -105	29.3% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	51.2%	-42.8%	Blocked: market_calibration_unavailable, nonpositive_expected_value, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive, probability_direction_mismatch 10/8/2026, 7:04:48 AM CDT
South Florida at UTSA spread · UTSA Selected edge 4.1 points	FanDuel	-6.5 / -118	29.3% conditional on no push · push 0.0%	54.1%	-45.9%	Blocked: market_calibration_unavailable, nonpositive_expected_value, uncertainty_adjusted_ev_not_positive, probability_direction_mismatch 10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT

Report computed 10/8/2026, 1:03:13 PM CDT. All comparisons derive from the same cached forecast and line snapshot. Data freshness → · Methodology →

Projected outcome — research only

UTSA is the projected outcome. Spread -10.6; total 53.1. Home win estimate 42.2%.

Empirical 80% home-margin interval: -30.4 to 23.4

Market discussion

Separate CFBD snapshot: home-side gap 3.6 points; total gap 3.1. These descriptive gaps do not price the SportsGameOdds offers above. No qualifying official edge has been validated; pass.

Conditions and counterarguments

Weather unavailable or outside forecast horizon. Injuries: no current verified availability report. Travel distance: unavailable. Missing contextual data and a short statistical sample could change this projection.

Statistical comparisons & assumptions

Recent metric	Value	Games supplied
points for	26.6	5
points against	14.6	5
off yards per play	5.7	5
off yards per pass	6.8	5
off yards per rush	4.9	5
off third down rate	0.5	5
off redzone scoring rate	—	0
off turnovers	0.8	5
offensive plays	59.2	5
def yards per play allowed	5.1	5
def third down rate allowed	0.3	5
def redzone scoring rate allowed	—	0
def takeaways	1.2	5

Recent metric	Value	Games supplied
points for	31.4	5
points against	26.2	5
off yards per play	5.9	5
off yards per pass	6.7	5
off yards per rush	5.1	5
off third down rate	0.3	5
off redzone scoring rate	—	0
off turnovers	0.6	5
offensive plays	64.6	5
def yards per play allowed	5.3	5
def third down rate allowed	0.4	5
def redzone scoring rate allowed	—	0
def takeaways	1.4	5

Ridge regression uses rolling offense, defense, conversion efficiency, turnovers, recent margin, pace, rest and site. Missing metrics use declared priors with missingness indicators.

Weather and verified injuries are context only: no tested historical coefficients are available. No numerical adjustment is invented.

Opponent strength is represented by the opponent’s prior statistical profile; CFBD paid adjusted metrics are not requested.

Win probability is an empirical residual estimate, not a guaranteed outcome. Legacy validation data has not been independently reconciled to CFBD.

Data provided by CFBD · retrieved 10/8/2026, 10:15:23 AM CT.

Sportsbook game lines

Cached SportsGameOdds snapshots, independent of model projections. Coverage is limited to a budgeted selection. Prices may have changed; these are not live offers or recommendations. Odds board & object budget →

Game / start (CT)	Sportsbook	Market / selection	Line	American odds	Book updated / retrieved (CT)	Freshness
South Florida at UTSA 10/8/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	moneyline · South Florida	—	+210	10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
South Florida at UTSA 10/8/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	moneyline · South Florida	—	+210	10/8/2026, 7:04:03 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
South Florida at UTSA 10/8/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	moneyline · South Florida	—	+220	10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
South Florida at UTSA 10/8/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	moneyline · UTSA	—	-260	10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
South Florida at UTSA 10/8/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	moneyline · UTSA	—	-250	10/8/2026, 7:04:03 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
South Florida at UTSA 10/8/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	moneyline · UTSA	—	-270	10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
South Florida at UTSA 10/8/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	total · over	50.5	-106	10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
South Florida at UTSA 10/8/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	total · over	49.5	-120	10/8/2026, 7:04:48 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
South Florida at UTSA 10/8/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	total · over	49.5	-115	10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
South Florida at UTSA 10/8/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	total · under	50.5	-114	10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
South Florida at UTSA 10/8/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	total · under	49.5	-108	10/8/2026, 7:04:48 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
South Florida at UTSA 10/8/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	total · under	49.5	-105	10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
South Florida at UTSA 10/8/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	spread · South Florida	6.5	-104	10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
South Florida at UTSA 10/8/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	spread · South Florida	7	-115	10/8/2026, 7:04:48 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
South Florida at UTSA 10/8/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	spread · South Florida	7	-118	10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
South Florida at UTSA 10/8/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	spread · UTSA	-6.5	-118	10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
South Florida at UTSA 10/8/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	spread · UTSA	-7	-105	10/8/2026, 7:04:48 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
South Florida at UTSA 10/8/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	spread · UTSA	-7	-102	10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
South Florida at UTSA 10/8/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	total · over	6.5	+124	10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
South Florida at UTSA 10/8/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	total · under	6.5	-160	10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
South Florida at UTSA 10/8/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	moneyline · South Florida	—	+110	10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot
South Florida at UTSA 10/8/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	moneyline · UTSA	—	-140	10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Cached snapshot