WIN
New Mexico State Aggies at Florida International Panthers
Under 46.5
Locked record →South Ark Daily Picks / Model Performance & Prediction History
Model Performance & Prediction History
Measured chronological backtests and an immutable forward prediction ledger, kept separate from betting results.
Model Record
Performance & filters →CFB counts official selections plus the owner-retained opening-night pick; the strict pregame record is separate on the ledger. Professional rows count first-published winner forecasts, not betting results. Units and ROI require recorded prices and stakes.
| Sport / record type | W–L–P | Pending | Win % | Units / ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| College Football · tracked | 2–0–0 | 0 | 100.0% | Unavailable |
| NFL · research winners | 0–0–0 | 29 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| NBA · research winners | 0–0–0 | 14 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| NHL · research winners | 0–0–0 | 98 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| MLB · research winners | 0–0–0 | 0 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Recent Results
Research backtests
| Sport | History | Latest final | Test season / games | Score MAE | Brier | Log loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 919 | 2026-10-05 | 2026 / 64 | 7.7 | 0.226 | 0.642 |
| NBA | 1326 | 2026-06-13 | 2025 / 1228 | 9.7 | 0.218 | 0.626 |
| NHL | 1449 | 2026-10-07 | 2026 / 55 | 1.5 | 0.240 | 0.673 |
| MLB | 7289 | 2025-09-28 | 2025 / 2425 | 2.5 | 0.246 | 0.686 |
Score MAE is mean absolute error per team; lower is better. Brier and log loss evaluate home-win probability on decisive games. Each test prediction uses only earlier calendar dates; coefficients refit chronologically. Season thresholds are fixed in advance and not optimized on reported results.
Historical ingestion times are unavailable: calendar-date exclusion is a proxy, not evidence of point-in-time injury or roster coverage. The preserved NBA 2013–2015 and MLB 2023–2025 archives are historical studies. Once connected, the NBA model trains separately on API-SPORTS results; archive rows are retained. None establishes profitable betting performance.
Probability calibration
NFL
| Probability bin | Sample | Mean estimate | Observed home wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0%–20.0% | 0 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| 20.0%–40.0% | 9 | 31.7% | 33.3% |
| 40.0%–60.0% | 24 | 49.6% | 45.8% |
| 60.0%–80.0% | 31 | 68.9% | 71.0% |
| 80.0%–100.0% | 0 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Forward prediction ledger
0 distinct graded professional games; 29 immutable forecast revisions. Revising a pregame estimate creates a new record rather than changing the original.
| Published | Sport / game | Original score | Team win probability | Result | Model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/7/2026, 11:16:08 PM CDT | NFL WAS at SF | 18.8–28.0 | SF 75.7% | Pending | SADP-score-ridge-1.0 |
| 10/7/2026, 11:16:08 PM CDT | NFL DAL at GB | 25.2–23.9 | GB 41.0% | Pending | SADP-score-ridge-1.0 |
| 10/7/2026, 11:16:08 PM CDT | NFL BUF at LV | 26.0–21.2 | LV 30.0% | Pending | SADP-score-ridge-1.0 |
| 10/7/2026, 11:16:08 PM CDT | NFL LAC at KC | 15.0–22.4 | KC 70.2% | Pending | SADP-score-ridge-1.0 |
| 10/7/2026, 11:16:08 PM CDT | NFL ARI at LA | 20.7–30.9 | LA 77.3% | Pending | SADP-score-ridge-1.0 |
| 10/7/2026, 11:16:08 PM CDT | NFL PIT at TB | 19.5–22.0 | TB 56.2% | Pending | SADP-score-ridge-1.0 |
| 10/7/2026, 11:16:08 PM CDT | NFL CAR at PHI | 21.6–21.0 | PHI 43.3% | Pending | SADP-score-ridge-1.0 |
| 10/7/2026, 11:16:08 PM CDT | NFL NO at NYG | 21.2–23.1 | NYG 52.5% | Pending | SADP-score-ridge-1.0 |
| 10/7/2026, 11:16:08 PM CDT | NFL NYJ at NE | 14.9–25.7 | NE 78.3% | Pending | SADP-score-ridge-1.0 |
| 10/7/2026, 11:16:08 PM CDT | NFL TEN at IND | 20.0–24.8 | IND 62.8% | Pending | SADP-score-ridge-1.0 |
| 10/7/2026, 11:16:08 PM CDT | NFL BAL at CLE | 22.9–20.2 | CLE 36.8% | Pending | SADP-score-ridge-1.0 |
| 10/7/2026, 11:16:08 PM CDT | NFL CHI at ATL | 23.6–22.9 | ATL 42.7% | Pending | SADP-score-ridge-1.0 |
| 10/7/2026, 11:16:08 PM CDT | NFL HOU at JAX | 20.9–26.4 | JAX 64.3% | Pending | SADP-score-ridge-1.0 |
| 10/7/2026, 11:16:08 PM CDT | NFL SEA at DEN | 24.5–21.0 | DEN 33.8% | Pending | SADP-score-ridge-1.0 |
| 10/7/2026, 11:16:08 PM CDT | NFL BUF at LA | 25.9–27.4 | LA 51.0% | Pending | SADP-score-ridge-1.0 |
| 10/7/2026, 11:16:08 PM CDT | NFL BAL at ATL | 23.8–23.5 | ATL 44.2% | Pending | SADP-score-ridge-1.0 |
| 10/7/2026, 11:16:08 PM CDT | NFL SF at SEA | 21.6–26.0 | SEA 61.7% | Pending | SADP-score-ridge-1.0 |
| 10/7/2026, 11:16:08 PM CDT | NFL DET at ARI | 27.0–24.0 | ARI 35.7% | Pending | SADP-score-ridge-1.0 |
| 10/7/2026, 11:16:08 PM CDT | NFL DEN at LAC | 20.2–19.3 | LAC 41.8% | Pending | SADP-score-ridge-1.0 |
| 10/7/2026, 11:16:08 PM CDT | NFL NYG at WAS | 22.9–22.0 | WAS 41.8% | Pending | SADP-score-ridge-1.0 |
| 10/7/2026, 11:16:08 PM CDT | NFL HOU at TEN | 23.1–19.9 | TEN 35.0% | Pending | SADP-score-ridge-1.0 |
| 10/7/2026, 11:16:08 PM CDT | NFL IND at PIT | 20.8–23.8 | PIT 57.8% | Pending | SADP-score-ridge-1.0 |
| 10/7/2026, 11:16:08 PM CDT | NFL CLE at NYJ | 20.8–18.0 | NYJ 36.7% | Pending | SADP-score-ridge-1.0 |
| 10/7/2026, 11:16:08 PM CDT | NFL MIN at NO | 19.2–20.5 | NO 50.2% | Pending | SADP-score-ridge-1.0 |
| 10/7/2026, 11:16:08 PM CDT | NFL LV at NE | 16.7–24.2 | NE 70.5% | Pending | SADP-score-ridge-1.0 |
| 10/7/2026, 11:16:08 PM CDT | NFL CIN at MIA | 22.7–20.7 | MIA 39.3% | Pending | SADP-score-ridge-1.0 |
| 10/7/2026, 11:16:08 PM CDT | NFL CHI at GB | 24.1–21.4 | GB 36.8% | Pending | SADP-score-ridge-1.0 |
| 10/7/2026, 11:16:08 PM CDT | NFL PHI at JAX | 17.1–27.1 | JAX 77.0% | Pending | SADP-score-ridge-1.0 |
| 10/7/2026, 11:16:08 PM CDT | NFL TB at DAL | 22.1–27.8 | DAL 64.7% | Pending | SADP-score-ridge-1.0 |
Betting record, win percentage, ROI, units and closing-line value: unavailable until real priced picks are published and settled. No artificial betting record is inferred from score projections.
Preserved CFB original-line pick record and validation →