WIN
New Mexico State Aggies at Florida International Panthers
Under 46.5
Locked record →South Ark Daily Picks / Model Performance & Prediction History
Model Performance & Prediction History
Measured chronological backtests and an immutable forward prediction ledger, kept separate from betting results.
Model Record
Performance & filters →CFB counts official selections plus the owner-retained opening-night pick; the strict pregame record is separate on the ledger. Professional rows count first-published winner forecasts, not betting results. Units and ROI require recorded prices and stakes.
| Sport / record type | W–L–P | Pending | Win % | Units / ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| College Football · tracked | 2–0–0 | 0 | 100.0% | Unavailable |
| NFL · research winners | 0–0–0 | 29 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| NBA · research winners | 0–0–0 | 14 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| NHL · research winners | 0–0–0 | 98 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| MLB · research winners | 0–0–0 | 0 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Recent Results
Research backtests
| Sport | History | Latest final | Test season / games | Score MAE | Brier | Log loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 919 | 2026-10-05 | 2026 / 64 | 7.7 | 0.226 | 0.642 |
| NBA | 1326 | 2026-06-13 | 2025 / 1228 | 9.7 | 0.218 | 0.626 |
| NHL | 1449 | 2026-10-07 | 2026 / 55 | 1.5 | 0.240 | 0.673 |
| MLB | 7289 | 2025-09-28 | 2025 / 2425 | 2.5 | 0.246 | 0.686 |
Score MAE is mean absolute error per team; lower is better. Brier and log loss evaluate home-win probability on decisive games. Each test prediction uses only earlier calendar dates; coefficients refit chronologically. Season thresholds are fixed in advance and not optimized on reported results.
Historical ingestion times are unavailable: calendar-date exclusion is a proxy, not evidence of point-in-time injury or roster coverage. The preserved NBA 2013–2015 and MLB 2023–2025 archives are historical studies. Once connected, the NBA model trains separately on API-SPORTS results; archive rows are retained. None establishes profitable betting performance.
Probability calibration
NHL
| Probability bin | Sample | Mean estimate | Observed home wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0%–20.0% | 0 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| 20.0%–40.0% | 2 | 37.0% | 50.0% |
| 40.0%–60.0% | 51 | 50.9% | 54.9% |
| 60.0%–80.0% | 2 | 62.6% | 100.0% |
| 80.0%–100.0% | 0 | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Forward prediction ledger
0 distinct graded professional games; 98 immutable forecast revisions. Revising a pregame estimate creates a new record rather than changing the original.
| Published | Sport / game | Original score | Team win probability | Result | Model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Florida Panthers at Ottawa Senators | 2.9–3.1 | Ottawa Senators 52.6% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres | 2.9–3.2 | Buffalo Sabres 55.3% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Tampa Bay Lightning at Vegas Golden Knights | 2.9–3.0 | Vegas Golden Knights 52.7% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Carolina Hurricanes at Vancouver Canucks | 3.4–3.0 | Vancouver Canucks 43.4% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Detroit Red Wings at Seattle Kraken | 3.1–3.2 | Seattle Kraken 51.3% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Minnesota Wild at Edmonton Oilers | 3.4–3.3 | Edmonton Oilers 49.2% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Boston Bruins at Dallas Stars | 2.8–3.0 | Dallas Stars 53.7% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Winnipeg Jets at St. Louis Blues | 3.0–3.4 | St. Louis Blues 56.7% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Toronto Maple Leafs at Columbus Blue Jackets | 3.1–3.3 | Columbus Blue Jackets 53.8% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Los Angeles Kings at Washington Capitals | 2.9–3.3 | Washington Capitals 57.2% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Anaheim Ducks at New York Islanders | 2.9–3.0 | New York Islanders 50.7% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Colorado Avalanche at New Jersey Devils | 3.3–3.0 | New Jersey Devils 45.3% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL San Jose Sharks at Montréal Canadiens | 3.3–3.4 | Montréal Canadiens 51.9% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Pittsburgh Penguins at Utah Mammoth | 2.8–3.1 | Utah Mammoth 55.0% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL San Jose Sharks at Toronto Maple Leafs | 3.4–3.4 | Toronto Maple Leafs 49.4% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Colorado Avalanche at Philadelphia Flyers | 3.2–2.8 | Philadelphia Flyers 45.0% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Anaheim Ducks at New York Rangers | 2.7–3.1 | New York Rangers 55.8% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Carolina Hurricanes at Calgary Flames | 3.4–2.9 | Calgary Flames 42.5% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Columbus Blue Jackets at Minnesota Wild | 2.8–3.2 | Minnesota Wild 56.3% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Pittsburgh Penguins at Vegas Golden Knights | 2.8–3.1 | Vegas Golden Knights 55.4% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Edmonton Oilers at Utah Mammoth | 3.2–3.5 | Utah Mammoth 54.8% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Boston Bruins at Los Angeles Kings | 2.9–2.9 | Los Angeles Kings 49.5% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL St. Louis Blues at Nashville Predators | 3.2–3.3 | Nashville Predators 50.6% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Dallas Stars at Chicago Blackhawks | 3.2–3.0 | Chicago Blackhawks 46.1% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL New York Rangers at Columbus Blue Jackets | 3.2–2.9 | Columbus Blue Jackets 44.8% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Ottawa Senators at Philadelphia Flyers | 3.0–2.7 | Philadelphia Flyers 45.2% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL San Jose Sharks at Detroit Red Wings | 3.3–3.3 | Detroit Red Wings 49.6% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Buffalo Sabres at Montréal Canadiens | 3.2–3.3 | Montréal Canadiens 51.6% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs | 3.2–3.2 | Toronto Maple Leafs 49.6% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Seattle Kraken at Florida Panthers | 3.0–3.2 | Florida Panthers 53.2% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Vancouver Canucks at Tampa Bay Lightning | 3.0–3.3 | Tampa Bay Lightning 54.9% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Carolina Hurricanes at Winnipeg Jets | 3.2–2.8 | Winnipeg Jets 43.4% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals | 3.0–3.3 | Washington Capitals 54.8% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Boston Bruins at Anaheim Ducks | 2.8–2.8 | Anaheim Ducks 49.8% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche | 2.9–3.1 | Colorado Avalanche 53.5% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights | 2.9–3.5 | Vegas Golden Knights 59.0% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Utah Mammoth at Edmonton Oilers | 3.4–3.4 | Edmonton Oilers 49.3% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL St. Louis Blues at Minnesota Wild | 3.1–3.2 | Minnesota Wild 51.4% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL San Jose Sharks at Nashville Predators | 3.2–3.5 | Nashville Predators 54.8% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Winnipeg Jets at Chicago Blackhawks | 3.2–3.1 | Chicago Blackhawks 49.5% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL New York Rangers at New Jersey Devils | 3.3–2.8 | New Jersey Devils 42.4% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Vancouver Canucks at Florida Panthers | 3.1–3.4 | Florida Panthers 54.0% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Seattle Kraken at Tampa Bay Lightning | 2.9–3.1 | Tampa Bay Lightning 54.1% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Philadelphia Flyers at Detroit Red Wings | 2.9–3.0 | Detroit Red Wings 51.1% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators | 2.8–3.1 | Ottawa Senators 55.8% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs | 3.3–3.3 | Toronto Maple Leafs 49.7% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche | 3.0–3.1 | Colorado Avalanche 51.7% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Montréal Canadiens at Washington Capitals | 2.9–3.4 | Washington Capitals 56.7% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Boston Bruins at San Jose Sharks | 3.1–3.1 | San Jose Sharks 49.3% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings | 3.3–3.4 | Los Angeles Kings 50.8% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks | 3.0–3.3 | Anaheim Ducks 54.9% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Toronto Maple Leafs at Utah Mammoth | 3.0–3.5 | Utah Mammoth 58.1% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Vegas Golden Knights at Nashville Predators | 3.1–3.2 | Nashville Predators 51.8% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars | 3.1–3.1 | Dallas Stars 50.0% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Minnesota Wild at Winnipeg Jets | 3.2–2.9 | Winnipeg Jets 45.3% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Pittsburgh Penguins at Chicago Blackhawks | 3.1–3.0 | Chicago Blackhawks 47.8% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Vancouver Canucks at New York Islanders | 3.2–3.3 | New York Islanders 51.8% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL St. Louis Blues at Ottawa Senators | 3.0–3.1 | Ottawa Senators 51.1% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers | 2.8–2.9 | New York Rangers 52.8% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Seattle Kraken at Philadelphia Flyers | 3.0–3.0 | Philadelphia Flyers 49.6% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes | 3.0–3.3 | Carolina Hurricanes 53.9% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Buffalo Sabres at Montréal Canadiens | 3.2–3.3 | Montréal Canadiens 51.6% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Florida Panthers at Columbus Blue Jackets | 3.1–3.1 | Columbus Blue Jackets 49.7% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL New Jersey Devils at Detroit Red Wings | 3.2–3.1 | Detroit Red Wings 49.5% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild | 2.9–3.1 | Minnesota Wild 52.7% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Ottawa Senators at New Jersey Devils | 3.1–2.9 | New Jersey Devils 45.5% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Florida Panthers at Buffalo Sabres | 3.2–3.2 | Buffalo Sabres 50.3% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers | 3.0–2.7 | Philadelphia Flyers 43.8% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Vancouver Canucks at New York Rangers | 3.0–3.4 | New York Rangers 56.7% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Seattle Kraken at Washington Capitals | 3.1–3.4 | Washington Capitals 54.6% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Los Angeles Kings at Vegas Golden Knights | 2.8–3.3 | Vegas Golden Knights 57.7% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames | 3.2–3.0 | Calgary Flames 47.8% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders | 3.0–2.8 | New York Islanders 47.6% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche | 3.0–3.4 | Colorado Avalanche 56.7% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Columbus Blue Jackets at St. Louis Blues | 3.0–3.3 | St. Louis Blues 55.0% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Carolina Hurricanes at Chicago Blackhawks | 3.3–2.8 | Chicago Blackhawks 42.2% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Dallas Stars at Pittsburgh Penguins | 2.9–2.9 | Pittsburgh Penguins 50.5% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Nashville Predators at Ottawa Senators | 2.9–3.1 | Ottawa Senators 54.0% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Detroit Red Wings at Montréal Canadiens | 3.2–3.3 | Montréal Canadiens 52.3% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Utah Mammoth at Buffalo Sabres | 3.2–3.2 | Buffalo Sabres 49.3% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Minnesota Wild at Florida Panthers | 3.0–3.0 | Florida Panthers 49.5% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Edmonton Oilers at San Jose Sharks | 3.5–3.5 | San Jose Sharks 50.6% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Vancouver Canucks at New Jersey Devils | 3.3–3.3 | New Jersey Devils 50.7% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Philadelphia Flyers at Boston Bruins | 2.6–3.0 | Boston Bruins 55.9% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Anaheim Ducks at Winnipeg Jets | 3.0–3.0 | Winnipeg Jets 48.8% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Pittsburgh Penguins at Columbus Blue Jackets | 2.9–3.0 | Columbus Blue Jackets 52.5% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL New York Rangers at Washington Capitals | 3.2–3.0 | Washington Capitals 47.3% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Seattle Kraken at Detroit Red Wings | 3.2–3.2 | Detroit Red Wings 49.3% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights | 2.9–3.5 | Vegas Golden Knights 58.5% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames | 3.3–3.1 | Calgary Flames 47.0% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL San Jose Sharks at St. Louis Blues | 3.2–3.5 | St. Louis Blues 55.1% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Chicago Blackhawks at New York Islanders | 3.0–3.3 | New York Islanders 53.7% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Vancouver Canucks at Carolina Hurricanes | 3.0–3.6 | Carolina Hurricanes 58.8% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Minnesota Wild at Tampa Bay Lightning | 2.9–2.9 | Tampa Bay Lightning 50.3% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Philadelphia Flyers at Ottawa Senators | 2.6–3.0 | Ottawa Senators 57.2% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Nashville Predators at Montréal Canadiens | 3.2–3.2 | Montréal Canadiens 49.9% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Dallas Stars at Buffalo Sabres | 3.1–3.2 | Buffalo Sabres 51.2% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
| 10/8/2026, 11:26:34 AM CDT | NHL Utah Mammoth at Boston Bruins | 3.0–3.0 | Boston Bruins 50.3% | Pending | SADP-NHL-goal-count-2.0 |
Betting record, win percentage, ROI, units and closing-line value: unavailable until real priced picks are published and settled. No artificial betting record is inferred from score projections.
Preserved CFB original-line pick record and validation →