South Ark Daily Picks / Florida State at Louisville

Florida State at Louisville

Model projection, matchup context, market snapshot and limitations.

WEEK 6 · 10/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM CT

Florida State at Louisville

L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium

SE v3.0 PROJECTION25.8 — 38.6

Separate CFBD line snapshot: Louisville spread -3.5 · total 59
Line snapshot 10/7/2026, 7:25:27 PM CT

Our prediction vs sportsbook odds

Our projected score: Florida State 25.8 · Louisville 38.6

DraftKingsStale snapshot

Market	Our model	Sportsbook snapshot	Model / market difference
Moneyline	Louisville win 49.1%	Louisville (-180) Florida State (+150)	-15.1 percentage points vs Louisville break-even
Spread	Louisville -12.7	Louisville -3.5 (-112) Florida State +3.5 (-108)	+9.2 points home-side edge; favors Louisville
Total	64.4	Over 59.5 (-105) Under 59.5 (-115)	+4.9 points (model − market total)

Florida State at Louisville
Oldest displayed book update 10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT · retrieved 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT

Compare 2 more sportsbooks

FanDuelStale snapshot

Market	Our model	Sportsbook snapshot	Model / market difference
Moneyline	Louisville win 49.1%	Louisville (-188) Florida State (+155)	-16.1 percentage points vs Louisville break-even
Spread	Louisville -12.7	Louisville -3.5 (-115) Florida State +3.5 (-105)	+9.2 points home-side edge; favors Louisville
Total	64.4	Over 59.5 (-105) Under 59.5 (-115)	+4.9 points (model − market total)

Florida State at Louisville
Oldest displayed book update 10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT · retrieved 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT

BetMGMStale snapshot

Market	Our model	Sportsbook snapshot	Model / market difference
Moneyline	Louisville win 49.1%	Louisville (-185) Florida State (+150)	-15.8 percentage points vs Louisville break-even
Spread	Louisville -12.7	Louisville -3.5 (-110) Florida State +3.5 (-108)	+9.2 points home-side edge; favors Louisville
Total	64.4	Over 59.5 (-130) Under 59.5 (-102)	+4.9 points (model − market total)

Florida State at Louisville
Oldest displayed book update 10/8/2026, 7:04:03 AM CDT · retrieved 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT

Differences are arithmetic comparisons, not validated betting edges or positive-EV recommendations. Bookmaker prices include margin and may have changed.

Current model picks and edge qualifications →

2026-10-08 · CENTRAL TIME · model-edge-3.0

Picks of the Day

Daily report →

Open Bet Slip →

Pick of the Day: Western Kentucky

CFB and NFL: spread edge ≥3 points or total edge ≥4 points. NHL: puck-line/total edge ≥0.5 goals; moneyline probability ≥52%, ≥2 percentage points above break-even and positive raw EV. Calibration is tracked, not required for these picks.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL · SE v3.0

Western Kentucky +1.5

Missouri State at Western Kentucky
10/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT

MODEL PROJECTION22.7 — 31.0

Missouri State 22.7 · Western Kentucky 31.0

9.8-point model gap · Selected team margin 8.3 vs spread 1.5

Why this pick: The projected team margin plus the selected spread produces 9.8 points of model value. Selected for one of the largest eligible gaps on this day.

Line, model and publication details

DraftKings · Odds -120. No price is invented.

Model SE v3.0 · forecast 10/8/2026, 1:25:05 PM CDT · line snapshot 10/8/2026, 12:43:06 PM CDT. Published 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM CDT.

Model probability 38.8%; uncalibrated estimate. Market lines may move. The record grades the original published line.

Matchup →

COLLEGE FOOTBALL · SE v3.0

Liberty -13.5

Sam Houston at Liberty
10/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT

MODEL PROJECTION19.0 — 38.6

Sam Houston 19.0 · Liberty 38.6

6.1-point model gap · Selected team margin 19.6 vs spread -13.5

Why this pick: The projected team margin plus the selected spread produces 6.1 points of model value. Selected for one of the largest eligible gaps on this day.

Line, model and publication details

FanDuel · Odds -110. No price is invented.

Model SE v3.0 · forecast 10/8/2026, 1:25:05 PM CDT · line snapshot 10/8/2026, 12:43:19 PM CDT. Published 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM CDT.

Model probability 32.8%; uncalibrated estimate. Market lines may move. The record grades the original published line.

Matchup →

COLLEGE FOOTBALL · SE v3.0

UTSA -6.5

South Florida at UTSA
10/8/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT

MODEL PROJECTION21.3 — 31.9

South Florida 21.3 · UTSA 31.9

4.1-point model gap · Selected team margin 10.6 vs spread -6.5

Why this pick: The projected team margin plus the selected spread produces 4.1 points of model value. Selected for one of the largest eligible gaps on this day.

Line, model and publication details

FanDuel · Odds -118. No price is invented.

Model SE v3.0 · forecast 10/8/2026, 1:25:05 PM CDT · line snapshot 10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT. Published 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM CDT.

Model probability 29.3%; uncalibrated estimate. Market lines may move. The record grades the original published line.

Matchup →

0 games on today’s research board

No verified games on today’s imported slate. Limited coverage does not establish that no games are scheduled.

Model / market research comparisons

Unvalidated residual estimates are descriptive research, not published bets. Expected value below is arithmetic per unit staked, not a validated profit forecast; pushes return the stake.

Game / selection	Sportsbook	Line / price	Research probability	Break-even	Raw EV	Publication status
No consistent model distribution and verified paired prices on today’s slate.

Report computed 10/8/2026, 1:55:52 PM CDT. All comparisons derive from the same cached forecast and line snapshot. Data freshness → · Methodology →

Projected outcome — research only

Louisville is the projected outcome. Spread -12.7; total 64.4. Home win estimate 49.1%.

Empirical 80% home-margin interval: -28.2 to 25.5

Market discussion

Separate CFBD snapshot: home-side gap 9.2 points; total gap 5.4. These descriptive gaps do not price the SportsGameOdds offers above. Current qualifying selections appear above and in the locked pending record.

Conditions and counterarguments

NWS forecast 79.0°F, wind 5.0 mph; fetched 10/7/2026, 7:26:22 PM CT. Injuries: no current verified availability report. Travel distance: unavailable. Missing contextual data and a short statistical sample could change this projection.

Statistical comparisons & assumptions

Recent metric	Value	Games supplied
points for	33.2	5
points against	21.6	5
off yards per play	6.9	5
off yards per pass	9.5	5
off yards per rush	5.0	5
off third down rate	0.4	5
off redzone scoring rate	—	0
off turnovers	1.4	5
offensive plays	62.2	5
def yards per play allowed	5.7	5
def third down rate allowed	0.4	5
def redzone scoring rate allowed	—	0
def takeaways	1.0	5

Recent metric	Value	Games supplied
points for	38.6	5
points against	29.2	5
off yards per play	7.6	5
off yards per pass	9.8	5
off yards per rush	5.9	5
off third down rate	0.5	5
off redzone scoring rate	—	0
off turnovers	0.8	5
offensive plays	64.6	5
def yards per play allowed	5.8	5
def third down rate allowed	0.3	5
def redzone scoring rate allowed	—	0
def takeaways	1.6	5

Ridge regression uses rolling offense, defense, conversion efficiency, turnovers, recent margin, pace, rest and site. Missing metrics use declared priors with missingness indicators.

Weather and verified injuries are context only: no tested historical coefficients are available. No numerical adjustment is invented.

Opponent strength is represented by the opponent’s prior statistical profile; CFBD paid adjusted metrics are not requested.

Win probability is an empirical residual estimate, not a guaranteed outcome. Legacy validation data has not been independently reconciled to CFBD.

Data provided by CFBD · retrieved 10/8/2026, 10:15:23 AM CT.

Sportsbook game lines

Cached SportsGameOdds snapshots, independent of model projections. Coverage is limited to a budgeted selection. Prices may have changed; these are not live offers or recommendations. Odds board & object budget →

Game / start (CT)	Sportsbook	Market / selection	Line	American odds	Book updated / retrieved (CT)	Freshness
Florida State at Louisville 10/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	moneyline · Florida State	—	+150	10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Stale snapshot
Florida State at Louisville 10/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	moneyline · Florida State	—	+155	10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Stale snapshot
Florida State at Louisville 10/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	moneyline · Florida State	—	+150	10/8/2026, 7:04:03 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Stale snapshot
Florida State at Louisville 10/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	moneyline · Louisville	—	-180	10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Stale snapshot
Florida State at Louisville 10/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	moneyline · Louisville	—	-188	10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Stale snapshot
Florida State at Louisville 10/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	moneyline · Louisville	—	-185	10/8/2026, 7:04:03 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Stale snapshot
Florida State at Louisville 10/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	total · over	59.5	-105	10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Stale snapshot
Florida State at Louisville 10/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	total · over	59.5	-105	10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Stale snapshot
Florida State at Louisville 10/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	total · over	59.5	-130	10/8/2026, 7:05:09 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Stale snapshot
Florida State at Louisville 10/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	total · under	59.5	-115	10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Stale snapshot
Florida State at Louisville 10/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	total · under	59.5	-115	10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Stale snapshot
Florida State at Louisville 10/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	total · under	59.5	-102	10/8/2026, 7:05:09 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Stale snapshot
Florida State at Louisville 10/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	spread · Florida State	3.5	-108	10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Stale snapshot
Florida State at Louisville 10/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	spread · Florida State	3.5	-105	10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Stale snapshot
Florida State at Louisville 10/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	spread · Florida State	3.5	-108	10/8/2026, 7:05:09 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Stale snapshot
Florida State at Louisville 10/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	spread · Louisville	-3.5	-112	10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Stale snapshot
Florida State at Louisville 10/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	FanDuel	spread · Louisville	-3.5	-115	10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Stale snapshot
Florida State at Louisville 10/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	BetMGM	spread · Louisville	-3.5	-110	10/8/2026, 7:05:09 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Stale snapshot
Florida State at Louisville 10/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	total · over	7.5	+105	10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Stale snapshot
Florida State at Louisville 10/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	total · under	7.5	-135	10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Stale snapshot
Florida State at Louisville 10/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	moneyline · Florida State	—	-105	10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Stale snapshot
Florida State at Louisville 10/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT	DraftKings	moneyline · Louisville	—	-125	10/8/2026, 7:04:07 AM CDT 10/8/2026, 7:08:48 AM CDT	Stale snapshot