South Ark Daily Picks / USC at Penn State
Model projection, matchup context, market snapshot and limitations.
WEEK 6 · 10/10/2026, 6:30:00 PM CT
Beaver Stadium
Separate CFBD line snapshot: Penn State spread -1.5 · total 55
Line snapshot 10/7/2026, 7:25:27 PM CT
No matched cached offer is available. The numbers above are model estimates. Browse available odds →
2026-10-08 · CENTRAL TIME · model-edge-3.0
CFB and NFL: spread edge ≥3 points or total edge ≥4 points. NHL: puck-line/total edge ≥0.5 goals; moneyline probability ≥52%, ≥2 percentage points above break-even and positive raw EV. Calibration is tracked, not required for these picks.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL · SE v3.0
Missouri State at Western Kentucky
10/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT
Missouri State 22.7 · Western Kentucky 31.0
9.8-point model gap · Selected team margin 8.3 vs spread 1.5
Why this pick: The projected team margin plus the selected spread produces 9.8 points of model value. Selected for one of the largest eligible gaps on this day.
DraftKings · Odds -120. No price is invented.
Model SE v3.0 · forecast 10/8/2026, 1:25:05 PM CDT · line snapshot 10/8/2026, 12:43:06 PM CDT. Published 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM CDT.
Model probability 38.8%; uncalibrated estimate. Market lines may move. The record grades the original published line.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL · SE v3.0
Sam Houston at Liberty
10/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT
Sam Houston 19.0 · Liberty 38.6
6.1-point model gap · Selected team margin 19.6 vs spread -13.5
Why this pick: The projected team margin plus the selected spread produces 6.1 points of model value. Selected for one of the largest eligible gaps on this day.
FanDuel · Odds -110. No price is invented.
Model SE v3.0 · forecast 10/8/2026, 1:25:05 PM CDT · line snapshot 10/8/2026, 12:43:19 PM CDT. Published 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM CDT.
Model probability 32.8%; uncalibrated estimate. Market lines may move. The record grades the original published line.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL · SE v3.0
South Florida at UTSA
10/8/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT
South Florida 21.3 · UTSA 31.9
4.1-point model gap · Selected team margin 10.6 vs spread -6.5
Why this pick: The projected team margin plus the selected spread produces 4.1 points of model value. Selected for one of the largest eligible gaps on this day.
FanDuel · Odds -118. No price is invented.
Model SE v3.0 · forecast 10/8/2026, 1:25:05 PM CDT · line snapshot 10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT. Published 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM CDT.
Model probability 29.3%; uncalibrated estimate. Market lines may move. The record grades the original published line.
No verified games on today’s imported slate. Limited coverage does not establish that no games are scheduled.
Unvalidated residual estimates are descriptive research, not published bets. Expected value below is arithmetic per unit staked, not a validated profit forecast; pushes return the stake.
| Game / selection | Sportsbook | Line / price | Research probability | Break-even | Raw EV | Publication status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No consistent model distribution and verified paired prices on today’s slate. | ||||||
Report computed 10/8/2026, 1:55:46 PM CDT. All comparisons derive from the same cached forecast and line snapshot. Data freshness → · Methodology →
Penn State is the projected outcome. Spread -13.6; total 62.3. Home win estimate 52.6%.
Empirical 80% home-margin interval: -27.4 to 26.4
Separate CFBD snapshot: home-side gap 12.1 points; total gap 7.3. These descriptive gaps do not price the SportsGameOdds offers above. Current qualifying selections appear above and in the locked pending record.
Weather unavailable or outside forecast horizon. Injuries: no current verified availability report. Travel distance: unavailable. Missing contextual data and a short statistical sample could change this projection.
| Recent metric | Value | Games supplied |
|---|---|---|
| points for | 37.3 | 6 |
| points against | 25.5 | 6 |
| off yards per play | 6.7 | 6 |
| off yards per pass | 9.2 | 6 |
| off yards per rush | 4.3 | 6 |
| off third down rate | 0.5 | 6 |
| off redzone scoring rate | — | 0 |
| off turnovers | 1.0 | 6 |
| offensive plays | 70.3 | 6 |
| def yards per play allowed | 5.8 | 6 |
| def third down rate allowed | 0.3 | 6 |
| def redzone scoring rate allowed | — | 0 |
| def takeaways | 0.8 | 6 |
| Recent metric | Value | Games supplied |
|---|---|---|
| points for | 32.0 | 5 |
| points against | 16.0 | 5 |
| off yards per play | 6.1 | 5 |
| off yards per pass | 8.4 | 5 |
| off yards per rush | 4.2 | 5 |
| off third down rate | 0.4 | 5 |
| off redzone scoring rate | — | 0 |
| off turnovers | 0.6 | 5 |
| offensive plays | 65.6 | 5 |
| def yards per play allowed | 4.7 | 5 |
| def third down rate allowed | 0.2 | 5 |
| def redzone scoring rate allowed | — | 0 |
| def takeaways | 1.8 | 5 |
Ridge regression uses rolling offense, defense, conversion efficiency, turnovers, recent margin, pace, rest and site. Missing metrics use declared priors with missingness indicators.
Weather and verified injuries are context only: no tested historical coefficients are available. No numerical adjustment is invented.
Opponent strength is represented by the opponent’s prior statistical profile; CFBD paid adjusted metrics are not requested.
Win probability is an empirical residual estimate, not a guaranteed outcome. Legacy validation data has not been independently reconciled to CFBD.
Data provided by CFBD · retrieved 10/8/2026, 10:15:23 AM CT.
Cached SportsGameOdds snapshots, independent of model projections. Coverage is limited to a budgeted selection. Prices may have changed; these are not live offers or recommendations. Odds board & object budget →
No cached game prices in this selection. No odds are invented. Source access, bookmaker coverage or the free budget may limit availability.