FINAL · WEEK 4 · 9/26/2026, 2:30:00 PM CT
New Mexico at New Mexico State
New Mexico 42 — New Mexico State 18
Confirmed CFBD final · retrieved 10/7/2026, 7:30:39 PM CT
Original published selections and grading →South Ark Daily Picks / New Mexico at New Mexico State
New Mexico at New Mexico State
Model projection, matchup context, market snapshot and limitations.
2026-10-08 · CENTRAL TIME · model-edge-3.0
Picks of the Day
Pick of the Day: Western Kentucky
CFB and NFL: spread edge ≥3 points or total edge ≥4 points. NHL: puck-line/total edge ≥0.5 goals; moneyline probability ≥52%, ≥2 percentage points above break-even and positive raw EV. Calibration is tracked, not required for these picks.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL · SE v3.0
Western Kentucky +1.5
Missouri State at Western Kentucky
10/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT
MODEL PROJECTION22.7 — 31.0
Missouri State 22.7 · Western Kentucky 31.0
9.8-point model gap · Selected team margin 8.3 vs spread 1.5
Why this pick: The projected team margin plus the selected spread produces 9.8 points of model value. Selected for one of the largest eligible gaps on this day.
Line, model and publication details
DraftKings · Odds -120. No price is invented.
Model SE v3.0 · forecast 10/8/2026, 1:25:05 PM CDT · line snapshot 10/8/2026, 12:43:06 PM CDT. Published 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM CDT.
Model probability 38.8%; uncalibrated estimate. Market lines may move. The record grades the original published line.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL · SE v3.0
Liberty -13.5
Sam Houston at Liberty
10/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM CDT
MODEL PROJECTION19.0 — 38.6
Sam Houston 19.0 · Liberty 38.6
6.1-point model gap · Selected team margin 19.6 vs spread -13.5
Why this pick: The projected team margin plus the selected spread produces 6.1 points of model value. Selected for one of the largest eligible gaps on this day.
Line, model and publication details
FanDuel · Odds -110. No price is invented.
Model SE v3.0 · forecast 10/8/2026, 1:25:05 PM CDT · line snapshot 10/8/2026, 12:43:19 PM CDT. Published 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM CDT.
Model probability 32.8%; uncalibrated estimate. Market lines may move. The record grades the original published line.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL · SE v3.0
UTSA -6.5
South Florida at UTSA
10/8/2026, 6:30:00 PM CDT
MODEL PROJECTION21.3 — 31.9
South Florida 21.3 · UTSA 31.9
4.1-point model gap · Selected team margin 10.6 vs spread -6.5
Why this pick: The projected team margin plus the selected spread produces 4.1 points of model value. Selected for one of the largest eligible gaps on this day.
Line, model and publication details
FanDuel · Odds -118. No price is invented.
Model SE v3.0 · forecast 10/8/2026, 1:25:05 PM CDT · line snapshot 10/8/2026, 7:04:39 AM CDT. Published 10/8/2026, 1:25:09 PM CDT.
Model probability 29.3%; uncalibrated estimate. Market lines may move. The record grades the original published line.
0 games on today’s research board
No verified games on today’s imported slate. Limited coverage does not establish that no games are scheduled.
Model / market research comparisons
Unvalidated residual estimates are descriptive research, not published bets. Expected value below is arithmetic per unit staked, not a validated profit forecast; pushes return the stake.
| Game / selection | Sportsbook | Line / price | Research probability | Break-even | Raw EV | Publication status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No consistent model distribution and verified paired prices on today’s slate. | ||||||
Report computed 10/8/2026, 5:25:56 PM CDT. All comparisons derive from the same cached forecast and line snapshot. Data freshness → · Methodology →
Projected outcome — research only
Projection unavailable.
Uncertainty interval unavailable: insufficient validation.
Market discussion
Separate CFBD snapshot: home-side gap — points; total gap —. These descriptive gaps do not price the SportsGameOdds offers above. Current qualifying selections appear above and in the locked pending record.
Conditions and counterarguments
Weather unavailable or outside forecast horizon. Injuries: no current verified availability report. Travel distance: unavailable. Missing contextual data and a short statistical sample could change this projection.
Statistical comparisons & assumptions
| Recent metric | Value | Games supplied |
|---|---|---|
| points for | 43.4 | 5 |
| points against | 10.6 | 5 |
| off yards per play | 5.9 | 5 |
| off yards per pass | 8.7 | 5 |
| off yards per rush | 4.6 | 5 |
| off third down rate | 0.4 | 5 |
| off redzone scoring rate | — | 0 |
| off turnovers | 0.2 | 5 |
| offensive plays | 65.0 | 5 |
| def yards per play allowed | 4.4 | 5 |
| def third down rate allowed | 0.3 | 5 |
| def redzone scoring rate allowed | — | 0 |
| def takeaways | 3.8 | 5 |
| Recent metric | Value | Games supplied |
|---|---|---|
| points for | 27.8 | 5 |
| points against | 26.4 | 5 |
| off yards per play | 6.1 | 5 |
| off yards per pass | 7.8 | 5 |
| off yards per rush | 4.4 | 5 |
| off third down rate | 0.4 | 5 |
| off redzone scoring rate | — | 0 |
| off turnovers | 1.6 | 5 |
| offensive plays | 65.2 | 5 |
| def yards per play allowed | 5.6 | 5 |
| def third down rate allowed | 0.4 | 5 |
| def redzone scoring rate allowed | — | 0 |
| def takeaways | 1.0 | 5 |
Data provided by CFBD · retrieved 10/7/2026, 7:30:39 PM CT.
Sportsbook game lines
Cached SportsGameOdds snapshots, independent of model projections. Coverage is limited to a budgeted selection. Prices may have changed; these are not live offers or recommendations. Odds board & object budget →
No cached game prices in this selection. No odds are invented. Source access, bookmaker coverage or the free budget may limit availability.